Earlier today, there was a story about Gene Munster once again predicting that we will see an Apple television set (iTV?) sometime in 2014. Since this has all been heard before from Mr. Munster, it was easy to dismiss this as his wishful thinking. He even poked fun at his previously incorrect predictions about the Apple TV set. However, another analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, jumped in today and agreed with Munster that Apple will, indeed, launch a TV set soon, although their time frames are a little off from each other.
In the report, Ming-Chi Kuo claims that in 2014, we will see a new revamped Apple TV box top powered by an A7 processor, however the report also points out that an Apple iTV could be on the horizon and may launch in the 2015-2016 time frame.
We expect Apple to launch a new version of the Apple TV with an A7 processor in 2014, and we forecast 2014 shipments to total 8.2mn units. Shipment growth will be limited unless Apple is able to integrate more TV content, services and its App Store, in our view.
We believe the slowdown in Apple TV shipments suggests Apple faces challenges in integrating TV content and services. If Apple wants to launch iTV, the challenges of integrating content and service are more difficult considering the different TV content ecosystems (e.g. cable operators) in various countries. Moreover, establishing an iTV supply chain is very costly. Thus we believe iTV launch will be delayed to end-2015 or early 2016 at the earliest.
While I still love the idea of an iTV, I do think that it is unlikely that we’ll see an iTV next year. If any new market is broken into by Apple, it will likely be a device like an iWatch, or wearable technology, as that is the big focus in the industry right now. Which device would you rather see? Leave a comment below or tweet me at @TiP_Griffin.