If you saw my latest post on PhoneDog, you may have noticed that I took a closer look at AT&T’s new data prices. But when it comes to iPhone users in particular, there’s a lot to weigh. So here, I go into more depth, specifically as it pertains to our community.

AT&T’s new tiered data prices set the webs on fire last week. They go into effect today, so let’s take a moment — while we wait for the WWDC keynote to get started — and examine what has just transpired at the carrier.

To start, we’ll take another look at the new data plans. Again, they are:

•DataPlus: $15/200MB monthly. Additional 200MB for another $15
•DataPro: $25/2GB monthly. Additional 1 GB of data for $10
•Tethering: Additional $20/month for DataPro customers

As we mentioned previously, if you’re an iPhone owner who wants to stick with that existing unlimited plan, you can do that — even if you upgrade to the new iPhone. But you can’t switch to the DataPlus or DataPro, and then revert back. Once you walk out those gates, you’re banished from unlimited land forever.

Something else to bear in mind: We just got some clarification from an anonymous insider at the carrier. If you’re interested in switching to the iPhone from another platform, you’ll want to bear the following in mind:

…[About] the new tiered pricing data plans, I work for AT&T and we had this same question come up among all the reps, and we went all the way to the operations director to get clarification. We asked if you switched from, say, a Blackberry Personal unlimited plan to an iPhone, would you then lose the option to have the unlimited data? After 4 painful hours of answering calls with these kinds of questions, we finally got a reply — yes the customer could keep the unlimited plan between new smartphone upgrades. But it would require a manager to override it in our billing system…

Now here’s a quick snapshot of where most subscribers are with their usage:

•73% of 11,000 survey respondents use less than 2 GB (Source: Wired poll, conducted last Wednesday)
•27% reported data usage exceeding 2 GB (Source: Wired poll)
•The average iPhone customer uses 273 MB of data monthly (Source: Consumer Reports)
•4% consume an average of 1 GB per month (Source: Consumer Reports)
•65% of AT&T smartphone owners use less than 200 MB monthly, on average. (Source: AT&T)
•98% of AT&T smartphone owners use less than 2 GB monthly, on average. (Source: AT&T)

What’s interesting about this? Well, the numbers vary from source to source. (And honestly, I might be a little wary of AT&T’s numbers.) But in any case, the DataPlus plan is unworkable for most users, leaving the DataPro as the only decent option. The good news with that is plenty of subscribers will get a little savings within a limit that should cover them fine for the most part. The bad news? Its adequacy is only based on current usage.

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The tiered plans might be fine for now, but…

In the future, I’d wager that this could all change.

I’m looking at AT&T’s numbers, and wondering why they vary from the other surveys. First, there are plenty of iPhone users who aren’t on AT&T, but using unlocked handsets on Tmo or an international cellular provider. Second, I think perhaps our carrier’s numbers may be stilted because its network problems. (Could the terrible network in some areas play a part in why some users don’t use more data? Just a thought.) Inevitably, no matter how slowly, AT&T’s technology will have to improve — if it wants to stay even remotely competitive, that is — and this could impact the numbers.

Also, consider that AT&T has finally blessed tethering, which is a brand new, much-wanted feature (at least for the unjailbroken). But it hasn’t actually launched yet, so there’s no telling how popular it will be — despite the ridiculous $20 access fee that offers no additional bandwidth. So that DataPro 2GB limit will be shared between two or more devices. (When I think about how much data I use on my laptop — not to mention on my iPad and iPhone — I get chills.)

Add these to the fact that newer, cooler, data-using technologies gaining traction, and increasingly more assets are moving to the cloud. This means many of us are going to be using more data than ever before.

More sites, vids and web-based games will be transitioning using HTML5, to make them more iPhone and iPad-friendly. With more content available to us, more of us will be connecting constantly to access this data. A lot more. And if the leaks pan out, the next-gen handset will have a front-facing cam for vid chat and a new processor that will make more data-intensive apps really sing. So more robust apps — with their larger file sizes — will be developed to take advantage of these hardware improvements. And they will be downloaded en masse and run on the go in stronger numbers than ever before.

Cloud-based computing will also become more prevalent. Just think about the cloud-based iTunes rumor. If it pans out, plenty of people will free up space on their handsets by accessing their online iTunes library.

So these plans do make some sense given today’s statistics, but a year or six months from now — heck, even later this summer, when that tethering feature goes live, this picture could look completely different. All of this increased functionality will send data usage through the roof. And by the time much of this really starts hitting its stride, some of us will already be stuck in a tiered plan.

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The data changes and the iPad

When tiered prices were first announced, there were a lot of ticked off iPad 3G+Wifi owners. At first, they wondered if they were victims of a “bait and switch.” They bought the expensive version of the tablet to take advantage of $30 unlimited data. How could AT&T change the rules so soon after the device launched?!

AT&T immediately went on a PR mission to smooth things over. The company confirmed that — like iPhone users — iPad owners with unlimited data plans prior to June 7th would get to keep it. And you know what happened? There was a run on these tablets! Consumers were hurrying to order one this weekend.

For both iPhone and tablet users, switching to or between one of the new plans is simple and easy. But if they give up unlimited data to sign up for a tiered plan, they can’t revert back. While annoying in general, it’s even worse for iPad users. Those glorious iPad apps and vids are bigger and stream more data than the ones for the iPhone. This means those data limits could get exceeded faster than anyone thinks. And these devices are so new, there hasn’t really been conclusive metrics to see where most people’s usage is yet.

The takeaway here? If you already have unlimited data for your tablet, think long and hard before monkeying with that.

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Okay, but how does this affect me, personally?

If you have unlimited and want to keep it, then this won’t affect you at all. But if you’re a current smartphone/iPad customer on AT&T thinking about switching plans, there are a few factors to weigh. First, you need to take a look at your current usage pattern. Then consider how that could change over time.

To check how much data you’ve been using, log in to your AT&T account online and click on the “View Past Data Usage” link.

As an example, I did it, and here’s what I got:

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So even I, tech addicted as I am, haven’t broken the GB level yet. Then again, I work from home, so I tend to Wifi most of the time. If my habits don’t change, that 2GB limit would suit me fine. And I’d save $5 per month switching from my $30 unlimited plan to the $25 DataPro plan.

The only thing is, my behavior probably will change.

I’ve been waiting for tethering for years. Now I have a Wifi iPad plus a laptop, it would appeal to me more than ever— and it would make my data use skyrocket. (Once I tether my Wifi iPad to my phone, I expect to be “untethered” to my desk. That means, I’d be connecting a lot on the go.)

So in the end, I’d be spending at least $45 per month and be stuck with a 2GB limit. And, if my suspicions are right, I’ll probably actually blow right through that, for a minimum of $10 extra dollars per month. That’s $55 per month — $25 more than I’m used to spending for my $30 unlimited connection. Yes, I get more functionality, but I also have less bandwidth available for it.

What about AT&T’s free Wifi initiative? Having 20,000 free hotspots sounds great. But I don’t have a high concentration of them or any other freely available hotspots in my corner of New England. (If I’d stayed in New York City, where I lived prior to this, it would’ve been a no brainer.) So geography can definitely be a factor too.

Somewhere in the distance, I can almost hear the laughter of thousands of jailbreakers mocking me. No doubt, they’re laughing right now. Many of them will probably keep their unlimited plans and use a jailbroken app for tethering. But for the rest of us…

Whether you’re a remote worker, like me, an office worker (who enjoys gaming or watching TV shows during those one-hour lunch breaks or updating social networks a few times a day) or you work on the road (constantly using your phone’s GPS), definitely take stock of your current and future bandwidth needs before you do anything.

As I write this, I’m also very aware that the WWDC keynote will take place in less than two hours. The chances of an announcement for multiple iPhone carriers may be slim for today, but if it happens — all this could be a moot point for a lot of users. If this will impact your decisions with AT&T, make sure to tune into our coverage.